It is very hard to take anyone seriously when they start mentioning polls in a discussuion on who's more likely to win Iowa.
And I say this because anyone who has followed election primaries before knows that the polls HAVE ALWAYS BEEN FLAWED, especially at this stage of the campaign. I'm surprised that people never seem to learn from history.
John Kery who was performing very poorly in the polls, turned his campaign around by winning Iowa, thanks to great organization by several precinct captains in Iowa and a message of electability and foreign policy suitability.
Let's take a look at the 2008 Democratic candidates, without mentioning polls:
Clinton is bad for Iowans, partly because of her role in NAFTA and jobs outsourcing. Her efforts to work on her image lately by shrugging tough questions with hysterical laughter, will only backfire. After all the deception, corruption and failed promisses, voters have become very sophisticated and very discerning. They know that politicians would do anything at election time to get their votes. She can never win Iowa and her campaign insiders know it. That's why she already lost 2 senior staff in Iowa, including the one who suggested that she skips Iowa completely. Her 'inevitability' perception is only in her head.
Kucinich and Gravel have no Iowa base. That's why they were not invited at the Steak Fry. They haven't go a snowball chance of winning Iowa, which is unfortunate because Kucinich would make a good President.
Edwards can clearly, clearly win Iowa, with no surprise. And this has nothing to do with his good standing in Iowa polls. He's been campaigning there for 4 years and has solid support in Iowa. Iowans love him.
Obama has the most money and the most grassroots organization in Iowa. And this is very rare. He’s the kind of insurgent candidate Iowans love. Historically, voter turnout in elections is always very low, but Obama is inspiring these people who never voted before or haven’t voted in a long time to join his campaign? That’s why he's recording hundreds of new supporters every single day. These new voters who are never polled are the ones who would tilt the vote in his favor. When people actually start paying attention to the election, Obama is the candidate most likely to gain. Obama and Edwards are favorites to win Iowa.
Richardson and Biden are probably the MOST experienced in the lot and they've been campaigning aggressively in Iowa. Of the two, Biden is less likely to have a surge. He's a loose cannon and he has a very thin treasury. Even if he wins Iowa, it will be a waste of time. Just like Gerphardt in 1988. I could put money on Richardson. He's the only one with executive experience, he's funny and hasn't been engaging in attacks on other candidates.
Dodd's campaign is a little bit everywhere and nowhere. He's not the most experienced (Richardson is), doesn't have the most money (Obama does), doesn't have great popularity in Iowa (Edwards does), doesn't have the most grassroots organization in Iowa (Obama does), didn't vote NO to invade Iraq (Kucinich voted NO), hasn't sponsored the most significant bills in the Senate (Biden has), hasn't led in terms of foreign policy, healthcare, economy, education, etc (Obama and Edwards have), doesn't have the most charisma (Obama does), isn't the establishment candidate (Clinton is) and doesn't have most union endorsement (Edwards does).
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Went to Iowa to canvass last weekend.
Most undecided. Who were they thinking of Hillary and Obama. Edwards mentioned twice and biden and richardson once.
He just needs a little more exposure so they can get familiar with him.
I think that's a great analysis of the situation, at least from what I've read. I'm not in Iowa so what typical Iowans are thinking I don't know first hand.
I think Obama has an excellent chance in winning Iowa or at least coming out a strong second. The more time he spends there, the better he will do.
Then, the only hurdle left is to make sure everyone actually goes out and votes.
You haven't factored in the effect of diaspora world-wide.
Many people around the world - like me - think very poorly of USA these days (they moved from affection and admiration to something bordering on contempt and hatred) because of its recent behaviour in Iraq and elsewhere. These people are writing and talking to relatives and friends in the USA to exercise their votes in favour of Obama; THAT is the enormity of the positive change and hope that he projects to the rest of the world. Their motivation? - the United States is causing too much suffering for innocent people in the Middle East and Iraq etc out of corporate greed and malice. USA is rocking the rickety boat we all share a bit too much. "Politics As Usual" in USA is not acceptable any more to foreigners as well. With best wishes.
Obama can win Iowa. He has a lot of support and the campaign is working very hard to make sure that all of those who say they are supporters will be there to caucus in January. Personally, I think the caucus system favors status quo candidates-not someone like Obama who brings so many new voters into the process. So, we are working twice as hard as the other candidates who generally appeal ONLY to traditional caucus participants who know where to go and what to do. Hillary Clinton WILL NOT WIN IOWA. If she does (highly unlikely)-I will lose all faith in the integrity and good judgement of my fellow Iowans.
Edwards may be popular in Iowa, but he can't beat Hillary for the nomination, simply because he doesn't have the money to compete with her nationwide on Feb. 5. The only viable alternative to Hillary is Obama, who has more money than she does.
Additionally, only Obama is drawing significant crossover support from Independents and Republicans, who like his optimism, strong family values and who are sick of the divisive politics of the past 20 years.
Remember the "Reagan Democrats?" Now we have "Obama Republicans." How long have the Democrats yearned for a Democratic Reagan? Now we have one.
That crossover support makes Obama by far the strongest candidate for the general election.
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